The pandemic saw a surge in global PC sales and shipments, a predictable outcome given the simultaneous growth in console sales and nearly all electronic devices. With widespread lockdowns, it was an ideal environment for investing in computers for leisure and remote work. However, as normalcy returned in 2022 and 2023, purchases declined, reverting to pre-pandemic figures. While 2024 and 2025 also experienced some downturns, 2026 is anticipated to see a substantial drop of up to 7% in the US, a level not seen since 2023.
We all recognize the immense utility of a computer. It’s more than just a gaming device like a console; it can run thousands of programs and perform a vast array of tasks. It serves for education, training, and work. Moreover, once responsibilities are met, it offers entertainment like streaming movies and shows, reading, and more. Despite its undeniable usefulness, PCs are becoming increasingly expensive, leading to fewer purchases.
US PC Shipments to Fall 7% in Q1 2026, with a 14.4% Annual Decline Expected
In 2025, purchasing memory was still relatively affordable, with 32 GB of DDR5 costing around 100 euros or slightly more. Even in late 2025, a growth in PC shipments (Q4 2025) was observed despite rising prices, though a 13% decline in 2026 was already predicted. Omdia Research, the source of that earlier data, has now released an updated version with even bleaker forecasts: an expected 14.4% drop throughout 2026 and a 7% decrease in Q1 2026 in the US.
To put this into perspective, neither 2025 nor 2024 saw such a decline. The last time this occurred was in Q3 2023, during the period of returning normalcy when sales began to fall. According to Omdia’s latest figures, US PC shipments in Q1 2026 will fall to 15.8 million units. The reason is clear: the high cost of memory and SSDs. Omdia notes that the most affected segment is PCs priced under $500, which saw an 18.7% decrease in Q1 2026.
Education Sector to See Largest Drop in 2026, but Foresees Growth in 2027 Driven by Lower Memory Prices and AI PCs
Conversely, PCs priced above $1,000 are expected to increase by 15% in 2026 due to the general price hike. While 2026 is projected to be a very poor year for shipments, 2027 is expected to see a nearly 9% increase, followed by 8% in 2028, 2% in 2029, and a 3% decline in 2030. Continuing with Omdia’s statistics, we see a breakdown by sector. The consumer sector is predicted to experience an 11.2% drop in 2026, followed by a 7.5% rise in 2027.
The commercial sector will see a 13.3% decline and a 6.8% increase. The government sector will experience a more significant rise in 2027 of 8.1%. The education sector shows the most extreme case, with a 28.8% fall in 2026 and a subsequent 21.3% increase in 2027. Regarding brands, HP is set to suffer the largest decline of 21.6%, reducing its market share from 24% to 20%. Acer is another brand expected to see a 5.4% drop, while other major brands will remain relatively stable. However, smaller brands collectively will see an average decline of 13%.
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