The Bank of Spain has identified the Artificial Intelligence boom as a financial risk that warrants close attention for the remainder of 2026. This warning doesn’t stem from skepticism about the technology itself, but rather from concerns that stock markets may have inflated the price of AI’s promises, with the latest example being SpaceX. In its Annual Report 2025, published yesterday, the bank highlights elevated valuations, high uncertainty, and the potential for a sharp correction in risk assets, particularly those associated with AI companies.
The warning specifically targets major US tech companies, often referred to as the “Magnificent Seven” (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Tesla). The market’s enthusiasm for AI has led to investors paying for future growth in advance, and Spanish financial institutions are reminding stakeholders that this fervor could lead to a bubble burst.
Bank of Spain Focuses on the AI Bubble and Warns of a Potential Burst
The potential for a market correction is driven by a relatively straightforward combination of factors. Large technology firms have captured a significant portion of investor enthusiasm, especially in the United States. Consequently, the market has assigned very high valuations to companies directly or indirectly involved with AI.
The issue is not the utility of AI, but rather that the current stock prices of many companies already assume a scenario of immense success, rapid deployment, and direct impact on profits. The Bank of Spain’s report points to “elevated uncertainty, high valuations, and the risk of abrupt correction” in risk assets, with a clear mention of AI-related companies. In essence, the bank anticipates a bubble burst if the current trajectory isn’t altered, and there’s little indication that it will be.
Despite these concerns, AI adoption in Spain continues to advance at a steady and accelerating pace. The report indicates that in Spain, companies with 10 or more employees using AI have seen their adoption rate increase from 8% in 2021 to 20% in 2025, bringing them close to the Euro area average of 21%. Germany leads with 26% adoption, while France, Italy, and Portugal stand at 18%, 17%, and 12% respectively.
Significant disparities persist based on company size. Large enterprises already boast adoption rates exceeding two-thirds, while SMEs have doubled their AI usage between 2024 and 2026. Counterintuitively, the primary challenges are not technological but human-centric.
Surprisingly, There’s a Shortage of AI Professionals in Spain
The main bottleneck remains talent, with nearly half of companies citing a lack of qualified personnel. Companies already employing AI hire 1.6 times more workers, generate nearly double the added value, possess 17% more capital per worker, have labor costs relative to added value that are approximately 4 percentage points lower, and employ over 8 percentage points more highly qualified staff.
Current AI usage is focused on quality, process reliability, and automation rather than solely on increasing sales or expanding product lines. Only around 10% of companies simultaneously utilize AI in marketing and sales, production and logistics, administration and security, and R&D. In terms of employment, 89% of companies do not perceive significant impacts, although over 25% report productivity improvements.
Looking ahead, 61% of large companies expect productivity gains, compared to 27% of SMEs. A substantial 83% of SMEs do not anticipate changes in repetitive tasks, but 44% of large companies foresee reductions, while nearly 20% predict an increase in analytical roles. The data reveals a widening gap, with small businesses falling behind.
Generative AI is undoubtedly increasing pressure on skilled and younger professionals, as it can produce text, code, images, and creative content. However, since 2022, no clear damage to youth hiring has been observed. Ultimately, productivity requires training, reorganization, investment, R&D, and reduced regulatory friction. The stock market, on the other hand, needs the promised future of AI to materialize before the price paid becomes a problem.
If this doesn’t happen, and the situation continues to tighten as indicated by the Bank of Spain’s data, the bubble burst could be severe. The current actions resemble kicking the ball down the field towards an impending precipice. Either the course is corrected, or AI may face a tremendous correction. AI is here to stay and will not disappear, but its pace and impact might not align with current market expectations, a reality that even the Bank of Spain clearly recognizes.
